Curator’s Note: I recommend everything I link to on Fluid Imagination, but highly recommend you read this one.
It’s time now. Not in an “eventually we should talk about this” way. In a “this is happening right now and I need you to understand it” way.
The experience that tech workers have had over the past year, of watching AI go from “helpful tool” to “does my job better than I do”, is the experience everyone else is about to have. Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service. Not in ten years. The people building these systems say one to five years. Some say less. And given what I’ve seen in just the last couple of months, I think “less” is more likely.
“But I tried AI and it wasn’t that good.”
I hear this constantly. I understand it, because it used to be true.
[But] anyone still making that argument either hasn’t used the current models, has an incentive to downplay what’s happening, or is evaluating based on an experience from 2024 that is no longer relevant. I don’t say that to be dismissive. I say it because the gap between public perception and current reality is now enormous, and that gap is dangerous… because it’s preventing people from preparing.
Let me make the pace of improvement concrete, because I think this is the part that’s hardest to believe if you’re not watching it closely.
In 2022, AI couldn’t do basic arithmetic reliably. It would confidently tell you that 7 × 8 = 54.
By 2023, it could pass the bar exam.
By 2024, it could write working software and explain graduate-level science.
By late 2025, some of the best engineers in the world said they had handed over most of their coding work to AI.
On February 5th, 2026, new models arrived that made everything before them feel like a different era.
If you haven’t tried AI in the last few months, what exists today would be unrecognizable to you.
— “Something Big Is Happening,” Matt Shumer