Have Some Inflation, Ya Basterds

A broad 10% tariff on goods imports, with a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, would raise $2.6 trillion over the next decade—0.7% of GDP—if other countries did not retaliate against the US. If targeted countries retaliate, however, as is likely the case, tariff revenue falls by 12-26% depending on the scenario.

The level of consumer prices would rise by 1.4 to 5.1% before substitution, between a tenth and a third of the first four years of pandemic inflation. This cost is the equivalent of $1,900 to $7,600 per household in 2023 dollars.

— “Fiscal, Macroeconomic, and Price Estimates of Tariffs Under Both Non-Retaliation and Retaliation Scenarios,” The Budget Lab at Yale University