The election of 2016 taught Americans to finally and utterly ignore the talking heads, pundits, and prognosticators whose livelihood depends on making or interpreting controversial statements about the current or future state of this country.
It taught us that pollsters don’t know what they’re talking about, that the media elite has its head so far up its own bubble it thinks it shits soap, and that there is more to this country than what we read in the newspapers and skim on Twitter.
And yet…people still express surprise that Vice-President Joe Biden has lost his status as the frontrunner of the Democratic field. These people must somehow still believe that the items they read in the newspaper or hear on the radio or television about “what’s going to happen” are somehow connected to reality.
Despite the attempt of the Republican party to get Americans to do otherwise, I still believe in facts. I still believe government agencies, nonprofit organizations, scientific researchers, educational institutions, and public and private journalists can and do play a strong role in the investigation, discovery, and reporting of bona-fide facts.
I do not, however, believe anyone understands the current political dynamics of this country, and therefore, no one can knowingly and accurately predict the outcome of the election of 2020, least of all any individual who gets paid to make that prediction.
Leaving aside how the nation’s political polarization, exhaustion, and apathy might influence the Democratic primaries and general election, no one understands how social media will affect the dynamic, nor what effect Russia, China, and other bad actors (including those within the national parties) will have on the process.
There is no predictor or prediction we should believe.
Put simply, the only way to know the winner of this election is to wait.
If you’re passionate enough to care beyond getting off the couch to vote, then by all means, devote your energy to the campaign of your candidate. Donate your hard-earned dollars. Volunteer your hard-treasured time. Write your hard-worded Tweets and blog posts. Argue with your hard-to-convince relatives. Do whatever you need to do.
But don’t expect any prediction you read or hear or watch to come true.
Work your hardest. Do your best. And then fight that fucker when we lose.