Scary Poll Numbers, But “Don’t Panic”

From Salon’’s About that McCain poll “bounce”: Don’t panic — yet: “Before full-bore panic sets in on the left [due to McCain's poll bounce], I would offer several caveats: First, that these are still surveys taken in the glow of the St. Paul convention…. Second, all of the immediate post-Republican convention polling is heavily skewed toward the weekend, with most of the interviewing performed on Friday night or Saturday. A candidate like Obama with strong support among young, urban and affluent voters may fare less well on such days simply because his constituency is not to be found at home… Third, the wireless universe [cell phones] is still a major x factor… Fourth, the next major campaign event — the initial debate on Sept. 26 — is set up to help the challenger…. And finally there are the “undecideds” themselves.”

One Comment

  1. Posted September 10, 2008 at 11:36 am | Permalink

    There’s still a rash of articles being written about the latest round of poll numbers, and like a sucker, I’m still reading them. While in the middle of this one, I stopped reading to sip my coffee, and in that moment, I remembered all the polls from the primary season.

    There’s a blogger over at the Rothenberg Political Report who wrote a post on this back in May, “Few Pollsters Get High Marks In ‘O8 Presidential Races,” and after comparing the polls to the actual results, he found that the biggest names in the polling game are often embarrassingly wrong, and even when they’re right in picking the winner, they’re usually way off in picking the margin.

    And yet, idiots like me keep paying attention for some damn reason.

    I’m gonna make another pot of coffee.

Post a Comment

Your email is never published nor shared. Required fields are marked *

*
*
Copyright © 2007 Fluid Imagination. All rights reserved.