I just really do not think this happens. I bet those iraqi are already back up.

Why wouldn’t they want their own country, especially now, when the country they belong to is about three steps away from anarchy?

Verbal sparring between those who believe Iraq is in a state of civil war and the Bush administration, who insists it is not, may find the argument increasingly in favor of those who believe the country is affected by civil divisions, and may be slipping towards greater chaos.

Iraqi Kurds living in the semi-autonomous northern part of the country lowered Iraqi flags this past weekend, replacing them with Kurdish banners over official government buildings in Iraqi Kurdistan. Their actions sent immediate shock waves to Baghdad, where Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki derided the move by the Kurds, calling it “illegal.”

And when Baghdad complained, the Kurds threatened to secede.

The shia are backed by US (training funding) and Iran (training funding insurgents) and are getting some paybackagainst the sunnis.

Anyway in regard to us staying and my magic peace dust. The plan would be to train Iraqis to protect themselves, we have already pulled out of two provinces and they are in total control. Best case is that we continue to do this, with us pulling our troops out of places and thus increasing levels in other places, and eventually the Iraqi’s will have complete control. How is this magic? It is already happening. Best case it continues to happen. Likely probably not but I wouldn’t call it fantasy.

Next you say they are in full blown civil war, I just do not think you understand how much worse it could get. You talk about 100 a day killed, what happens when that number is 2000 a day or more. Now with the amount of oil money you can bet Nato will intervene with peace keepers and we will be 5 steps back from where we are now. Except it will not be us in there it will be the UN and last time I checked they robbed that country for years, so I am not really confident that they will accomplish much.

When the full might of the U.S. military has been brought to bear in an Iraqi city — think Fallujah, Tall ‘Afar, Samarra, al-Qaim — the enemy has simply melted away, taking its terrorist tactics to places that are inadequately defended. And when U.S. forces have eventually stood down, leaving the police to Iraqis, the enemy has returned to the very places that had supposedly been cleaned up — at the cost of American lives.

You say the best case scenario for us staying is that, because of some magic, the strategy that we’ve been following will “eventually” work. I disagree. I don’t think that is a best case scenario. I think it’s a total fantasy.

And you also say that the worst case scenario of us staying is an full-blown civil war. What I’m trying to make clear is that Iraq is already in a civil war. So the worst case is the reality.

I’m totally with you on the worst case scenario of what would happen if we leave. But I’m not sure that the worst case scenario would be the real scenario.

Last night, I was talking to a dude who just started school up here. He was in the marines. He was part of the force that first took Baghdad. He went into Fallujah the first time. And he went in the second time as well. After hearing some of the craziest war stories, I asked him what he thinks of the situation now.

He said, “When we first got there, they loved us. Everyone really was happy to see us. And when we took Baghdad, everyone seemed really psyched about what we had done. Then a year went by, and they were like, ‘Hey thanks for getting us the water, and thanks for getting food for my family, but we gotta ask, ‘What are you still doing here?’”

Then he said, “I think it’s just time for us to go. They’ve got to work it out for themselves. And I really believe that the minute we leave, the violence stops.”

Now, whether this guy is right or wrong is another thing, but he’s had his feet in the sand and he’s talked to the individuals who actually live in the city. I think he may be on to something.

Staying worst case would be increased violence between the Sunnis and the Shiites spiraling into a full blown civil war. We then have to stay even longer until everything settles or we have to back one side verse the other.

Leaving best case would be about what Kyle stated. Although because he is such a talented writer he is stating that if we leave there will be a civil war he is just saying it a different way. If we leave all scenarios include civil war, it is inevitable.

Leaving worst case would be genocide and us or NATO having to come back to stabilize the country. Outside forces (Iran, Syria, terrorist organizations) set up camp funding which ever side gives them the best chance to take control. Iraq becomes Iran only with more money from oil. There is more to most of these options bad things we can probably not even think about.